In today’s changing global logistics landscape, it is essential for companies to make decisions based on up-to-date data and market trends. ACE Logistics Latvia, in cooperation with international carriers, has prepared an overview of the current key challenges and opportunities in sea and air freight transport.
Sea Freight: Improving Regularity, Congestion Persists
In recent months, a positive trend has been observed in the accuracy of shipping schedules:
- Schedule reliability on Asia-Northern Europe routes has currently reached 66.8%, driven by more stable schedules and more efficient route management by major shipping alliances.
- Although container ships are less frequently skipping scheduled calls at ports such as Antwerp and Rotterdam, terminal congestion at these ports remains very high, maintaining pressure on capacity and potentially affecting service speed.
Freight Rates: China → Northern Europe (Baltics)
Freight rates remain unstable – influenced by both changes in demand and political decisions on tariffs and sanctions. Some examples:
- In February-March 2025, after Chinese New Year, FCL rates had dropped to 2,500-2,800 USD/FEU – approximately 10-20% lower than in 2024.
- In March-April, prices fell further – in some cases below 2,600 USD/FEU, due to low demand, excessive capacity, and alliance restructuring.
- In June-July, many carriers limited capacity (blank sailings), which contributed to a moderate price recovery – in July, rates rose to approximately 3,300-3,500 USD/FEU, still around 30-40% lower than in summer 2024.
Additional adjustments in the tariff structure are expected in the coming months, due to the introduction of new tariffs and the review of existing regulations. Freight rates may slightly increase in the autumn season due to increased demand before Christmas; however, without significant geopolitical or economic changes, rates are likely to remain below 2024 levels, as supply is increasing faster than demand.
Air Freight: Record Capacity, Declining Yields
The air freight sector is currently reaching maximum capacity, driven by increased passenger flows during the summer season and additional cargo space availability on passenger aircraft. At the same time:
- Year-on-year yield figures have decreased by 2.9% – the first such decline this year.
- Demand on the Asia-Europe route has increased by 13.4%.
- On the Asia-North America route, cargo volume has decreased by 10.7%, mainly due to new tariff restrictions.
- Cargo flow between Asian countries remains stable, thanks to China’s focus on Southeast Asian markets.
LCL Solutions: More Efficient Logistics in Changing Conditions
ACE Logistics Latvia encourages companies to consider replacing some FCL (full container) shipments with LCL (less-than-container load) solutions. This can provide:
- More accurate cost control by paying only for the space actually used in the container;
- Greater flexibility in delivery times and faster market access;
- More efficient use of capacity, especially during constraint periods;
- A more sustainable supply chain due to optimized loading.
Geopolitical Risks and Operational Changes
In recent weeks, several significant geopolitical events have impacted international logistics:
- Instability in the Middle East – particularly regarding access to the Strait of Hormuz – poses risks to international supply routes.
- Odesa port infrastructure has been damaged following a recent military attack, affecting regional logistics.
Although the direct impact on Baltic routes is currently limited, alternative delivery solutions are being developed, and the situation is being continuously monitored.
Economic Forecasts and Trade Policy Changes
According to the latest forecasts:
- The US GDP growth forecast has been reduced by 1.2%, while inflationary pressure continues to rise.
- In Europe, a short-term slowdown is forecasted, followed by recovery.
- China continues to grow, focusing on innovation and regional trade, with a projected growth of 4.8%.
New tariffs and trade restrictions are affecting cargo flow distribution and conditions in several key markets. We help clients adapt to these changes by choosing the most optimal routes and transport solutions.
ACE Logistics Latvia provides clients in the Baltic States with access to a wide international transport infrastructure that supports strategic and informed decision-making in logistics. By combining regional expertise with global resources, we help your business successfully adapt and grow even under the most demanding market conditions.
